As the future of cryptocurrencies remains somewhat unclear in the eyes of the government, New York is taking a vital first step into mainstream adoption.
On February 2nd, Assembly Bill A9685 was introduced to to the Assembly Committee of the New York Senate. The bill is backed by Clyde Vanel, who is the Assembly member for the 33rd District of the New York State Assembly. Vanel has a history of publicly supporting the implementation of blockchain technologies, both personally and professionally. He has also gone on record stating that “as an assembly member that sits on the Banking committee and an owner of denominations of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin, we must properly and carefully review crypto currency.”
His latest bill (A9685), proposes to “establish a task force to study the impact of a state-issued
cryptocurrency on the state of New York.” If passed, this task force will play an immense role in adoption in both state and federal governments. One of the main areas of question is how the bill will affect United States Securities and Exchange Commission’s and the Commodities. It will also focus on how crypto currencies will affect local, state, and federal taxation. The members of this force will be comprised of eight members appointed by the Governor, the Temporary President of the Senate, the Speaker of the Assembly, and the Superintendent of the Department of Financial Services.
The bill is currently being reviewed by the Committee, where it will then be scheduled to appear in front of the Senate if approved. If the bill is later enacted, the task force will have one year to research and come to a conclusion where they will detail and document their findings. The members of this task force will receive no compensation for their services.
Crypto enthusiasts currently find themselves in a state of uncertainty; a strange place between a fringe movement designed to disrupt the established financial system and a future where regulations and laws govern how we use the platform. If 2017 was the year of mainstream coverage, 2018 might be the year of mainstream regulation.
Assembly Bill A9685 can be found in its entirety here.
Wells Fargo Bans Buying Crypto with Credit Cards
In an email to CBS MoneyWatch, a Wells Fargo spokesman has confirmed that the company will now ban all cryptocurrency purchases with their credit cards.
The abrupt decision is “due to the multiple risks associated with this volatile investment,” said the spokesperson, who also stated that “this decision is in line with the overall industry.”
In the past year, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Citigroup have all banned cryptocurrency purchases. Since the crypto space is hyper-volatile, they are worried that many customers may not be able to pay back the loan. In a poll conducted by loan marketplace LendEDU, it has been discovered that 18 percent of bitcoin buyers used a credit card to pay for the currency. Of that 18 percent, 22 percent were unable to pay off their balance after purchasing bitcoin.
These sweeping changes to policy come after a rough two quarters of 2018. Bitcoin has fallen from around 20,000 USD in December 2017 to around 7,000 USD currently.
It is unclear where the cryptocurrency market will be in the future, but Wells Fargo has stated that they will “continue to evaluate the issue as the market evolves.” In order for these large banks to fully back crypto purchases, the market will need to prove that it is mature and stable.
Bitcoin is Beginning to Trade Like a Commodity
For much of the last year Bitcoin’s price appreciated at exponential levels. Clearly this was due to demand side pressure driving the price upwards, as the supply of Bitcoin, currently circulating at 17,000,587 coins, will only able to marginally increase over time, with a max capacity of 21,000,000 coins. A small, potentially immaterial amount of supply side pressure can be added, as people will inevitably lose private keys to their Bitcoin due to cold storage failure or hardware corruption.
However, in the recent time frame of the last three months, Bitcoin has seen a marked change in its price action. This particular cryptocurrency now has taken on attributes of the price action commonly seen in the commodities market. The two types of traders of cryptocurrency and commodities also share a similar profile. Commodities traders will seek to purchase futures to hedge crop prices needed to run a business or lock in profit on a sale so that they are guaranteed to meet all operational and living expenses. Many Bitcoin purchasers also seek to hedge against the inflation of their local government’s fiat currency or governmental political risk of losing ownership of physical assets in times of political instability.Additionally, speculators in both markets trade the price swings and, at times, can amplify price movements in either direction. While price volatility is seen as commonplace in the cryptocurrency space, the commodities market has its share of volatility also, however. An important caveat to note is the difference of the reference time frame.
We can see the apparent departure from extreme volatility as Bitcoin traded within a 43.60% band from its height in this three-month span.
data source: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/?start=20180127&end=20180427
Here we can see the chart for oil as it fluctuates 73.63% percent from its high over a 5 year span. It is important to note that even blue chip commodities can go on long losing streaks before rebounding.
data source: http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart
It can be seen below that gold fluctuated 27.7% over this 5 year period of time. While it would have been a good choice to hedge against rampant inflation, buying gold on leverage or holding a large position in it would have seen a sizeable downswing for many years in a portfolio.
Bitcoin would have to maintain a track record of many years of trading within a relative band to match some of these long time commodity giants. Perhaps recent volatility can give us hints to a potential price floor and some illiquidity from amongst those owners who keep their coins off exchanges. Regardless of the degree, volatility has, and always will, behoove one to correctly construct a portfolio with asset allocation matching his or her appetite and ability to sustain risk (volatility).
NVIDIA Profit Forecast Slumps Due to Plunging Crypto Prices
After the second worst quarter for cryptocurrencies in history, analysts on Wall Street are now changing their predictions on NVIDIA’s profit margin.
Wells Fargo Securities, whose parent companies are Wells Fargo and EVEREN Capital Corp, announced that they will be lowering their predictions due to the high valuation of crypto in Q4 2017 and the dramatic decrease seen in Q1 2018.
Even though NVIDIA continues to market their products and company as one centered towards gaming, it is hard to ignore the obvious correlation between them and crypto. Earlier this year, The Hodlr covered an NVIDIA earnings call where the CEO was quoted saying that “Crypto is a real thing, it’s not going to go away.”
David Wong, an analyst for Wells Fargo Securities, released a letter to clients entitled “We See A Significant Rise In Risk.” In the letter, he states that “In recent months … we felt that there were multiple risks associated with Nvidia’s exposure to cryptocurrency mining and our concerns over the sustainability of Nvidia’s gaming, automotive and datacenter growth.”
After the letter was publicly released, NVIDIA shares plunged almost 5%.
In conclusion, Wong later revised his original 2019 prediction for NVIDIA shares from $5.39 to $5.26.
It is unclear whether or not this prediction will last the year. 2018 may prove to be a strong year for crypto, and if so, the analyst might have to revert to his original number.
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